“Le point sur” Lyon and Marseille’s Chances in the Champions League

By: Sam | December 1st, 2007

After the results were final in Matchday 5, Lyon knew their hopes of going through to the knockout stages of the Champions League, which they had so poorly started, rested on their shoulders and theirs alone.

In all fairness, the same can’t be said for Marseille, who kicked off their campaign with a bang, beating Besiktas at home and slaying the giant Liverpool at Anfield, but who haven’t won since then.

Here’s the thing: Nothing at all is definite at all in Group A at all. At all. Not to say that Lyon’s encounter with Rangers at Ibrox will be devoid of suspense, mind you.

But just if things aren’t clear for you (they aren’t clear for me, let me tell you), here is everything that could happen.

After Matchday 5:
Porto 8
Marseille 7
Liverpool 7
Besiktas 6

1. Marseille wins, Porto wins
Porto 11
Marseille 10
Liverpool 7
Besiktas 6

2. Marseille wins, Porto draws
Marseille 10
Porto 8
Liverpool 7
Besiktas 7

3. Marseille wins, Porto loses
Marseille 10
Besiktas 9
Porto 8
Liverpool 7

4. Marseille draws, Porto wins
Porto 11
Marseille 8
Liverpool 8
Besiktas 7

5. Marseille draws, Porto draws
Porto 9
Marseille 8
Liverpool 8
Beskitas 7

6. Marseille draws, Porto loses
Besiktas 9
Liverpool 8
Marseille 8
Porto 8

7. Marseille loses, Porto wins
Porto 11
Liverpool 10
Marseille 7
Besiktas 6

8. Marseille loses, Porto draws
Liverpool 10
Porto 9
Marseille 7
Besiktas 7

9. Marseille loses, Porto loses
Liverpool 10
Besiktas 9
Porto 8
Marseille 7

Bear with me now, this is kind of complicated. Keeping in mind those nine scenarios (number 6 was excruciating to figure out), these are the mathematical probabilities.

Model: Team (Possible first place finishes, possible second place finishes, possible third place finishes, possible fourth place finishes)

Porto (4,2,2,1)
Marseille (2,3,3,1)
Liverpool (2,2,4,1)
Besiktas (1,2,0,6)

So by looking at those numbers, it’s almost a sure thing that the Turks will finish bottom, but we can’t be so sure. And the “advantage” Marseille has over Liverpool is as slight as can be. Porto are guaranteed entry if they scrape one point off Besiktas, which I think they’ll do. Oh dear how this is stressful.

Oh, right, Lyon.

If they win, they’re through. If not, they’re in the UEFA Cup. That’s just about as complicated as I can put it.

But of course, this article wouldn’t be complete without my predictions, would it?

Group A: Marseille 1-2 Liverpool
Porto 2-0 Besiktas

Porto 11
Liverpool 10
Marseille 7
Besiktas 6

Group E: Rangers 0-1 Lyon
Barcelona Who Cares-Not me Stuttgart